Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.081600 23.330979 27.217776 32.294128 38.880857 47.335672 59.358319
2025-02-09 15.577685 19.181949 23.902497 30.770714 40.950910 56.327451 83.329108
2025-02-16 13.828113 17.743761 23.222302 31.885594 46.220389 71.302790 125.967733
2025-02-23 12.323599 16.272326 22.062039 31.799372 49.360223 84.152940 177.327302
2025-03-02 11.172647 15.090174 21.054262 31.611297 52.128871 97.753155 249.357582
2025-03-09 10.380154 14.311966 20.509468 32.026700 56.133957 116.716848 378.274132
2025-03-16 9.436728 13.179663 19.210146 30.774530 56.210353 125.917499 497.972095
2025-03-23 8.840243 12.526126 18.613858 30.719097 58.962170 145.265302 772.363127
2025-03-30 8.107763 11.580627 17.396628 29.202295 57.710439 150.830566 993.403318
2025-04-06 7.426032 10.663955 16.137341 27.404242 55.265699 150.705899 1179.118710
2025-04-13 6.883213 9.939280 15.155382 26.050695 53.678966 153.341841 1480.123520
2025-04-20 7.037080 10.393490 16.354799 29.597118 67.077973 239.883504 11520.502890
2025-04-27 6.886837 10.331068 16.620754 31.225491 76.162467 332.212958 NaN
2025-05-04 6.415446 9.666992 15.652701 29.733743 74.169203 345.559972 NaN
2025-05-11 6.246922 9.530114 15.710833 30.795346 82.024789 471.197696 NaN
2025-05-18 5.985825 9.203933 15.349703 30.713334 85.544090 576.268203 NaN
2025-05-25 5.739875 8.887762 14.977113 30.534551 88.680809 703.820154 NaN
2025-06-01 5.562283 8.685907 14.823307 30.929402 94.756303 950.623737 NaN
2025-06-08 5.273695 8.257100 14.147829 29.738816 92.710522 1011.233225 NaN
2025-06-15 5.094397 8.025536 13.879544 29.686085 96.495374 1308.625499 NaN
2025-06-22 4.824834 7.607252 13.172926 28.242341 92.341525 1293.910642 NaN
2025-06-29 4.551164 7.170157 12.401311 26.528723 86.266692 1172.495945 NaN
2025-07-06 4.323633 6.813435 11.788917 25.237138 82.213219 1128.533599 NaN